GovernanceTechnicalA few weeksIntermediateFree

Are consumer GPUs a problem for export controls?

Export controls target data-centre chips. But consumer hardware keeps getting better, and frontier-level performance reaches it within about a year. Update the analysis with the latest hardware.

Download PDFDataReading & writing

Why it matters

If gaming hardware can get around the controls, policymakers need to know by how much.

Output: An updated quantitative analysis.

Getting started

0 of 5 done
  1. Read IAPS’s report and Epoch AI’s consumer-GPU gap analysis.

  2. Collect specs for current consumer and data-centre chips from public sources.

  3. Estimate what a cluster of consumer chips could train, and at what cost.

  4. Compare with current export-control thresholds.

  5. Write up your conclusion and its biggest uncertainty.

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Plot AI compute trends with real data

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Re-check “catch-up algorithmic progress”

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Further reading

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